The mistakes of the Soviet Union are all documented in George Kennan's analysis.
I don't know if the Soviet intelligence agency obtained this material, but the subsequent history of the Soviet Union developed exactly as he predicted.
Coincidence: George Kennan: "The Roots of Soviet Behavior"
In February 1946, the US Treasury Department sent a telegram to the Moscow Embassy asking if the Soviet Union wanted to join the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Since the ambassador was not there, Kennan, acting as a substitute, sent a "long telegram." The core idea of this telegram was "containment strategy."
In 1947, Kennan published an article in the journal "Foreign Affairs" called "The Roots of Soviet Behavior," analyzing the actions of the Soviet Communist Party and its leaders.
So how did Kennan analyze it?
He believed that the Kremlin's perception came from Russia's traditional sense of insecurity. He believed that Soviet leaders were well aware that their system was inferior to the Western system, so they constantly thought about countering peaceful evolution. Once the Russian people understood the truth, the Soviet system would collapse.
He believed that,
Since the establishment of the Bolshevik regime, due to Lenin's interpretation, Marx's doctrine has become more fierce, aggressive, and exclusive, becoming an unparalleled driving force for arousing insecurity. It is precisely because of this that those Bolshevik rulers have a much stronger sense of insecurity than any rulers in Russian history. In the name of Marxism, their actions have wiped out even the slightest ethical value. Today, they cannot do without such a doctrine because this doctrine has become the fig leaf that makes others have to admire them morally and intellectually. Under the pressure of history and the current situation, Soviet leaders put forward a dogma that depicts the external world as an evil, hostile world that threatens the Soviet Union, and believes that this world breeds bacteria that spread diseases and will inevitably be destroyed by more and more internal turmoil, ultimately succumbing to the fatal blow of the rising socialist theory, and giving way to a new and better world. This argument provides a basis for the expansion of the state police and military forces in the Soviet Union, provides a reason for isolating the Russian people from the outside world, and provides legitimacy for the constant expansion of police powers that fully reflect the instincts and characteristics of Russian rulers.
Therefore, Kennan said,
These Soviet leaders are inherently convinced that under no circumstances can they openly acknowledge any advantages or legitimacy of opposing forces. And the source of this opposing force is absolutely incurable and dying capitalism. As long as capitalism is publicly acknowledged to still exist in Russia, it can be used as an excuse to implement dictatorship. However, when the remnants of capitalism are gradually eliminated, the legitimacy of dictatorship disappears. When the official announcement claims that all domestic capitalist remnants have been eradicated, dictatorship must also disappear. Moreover, since there are no remnants of capitalism in the country, it is even more impossible to acknowledge the spontaneous and serious resistance of the liberated people to the Kremlin. Therefore, the Soviet regime must direct its spearhead at the capitalist threat from abroad in order to continue the dictatorship.
Therefore, Kennan began to criticize Roosevelt's foreign policy. According to Roosevelt's viewpoint, the United States should unite with the Soviet Union. But Kennan believed that this policy was ineffective.
First, if you are willing to unite with them, they will not unite with you at all because of their inherent sense of insecurity. They will think that your alliance is meant to evolve them.
Second, in order to reduce their sense of insecurity, the Soviet Union must expand externally. Therefore, the boundaries drawn by the United States for them are useless.
So, how to contain the Soviet Union and strangle it? It can be divided into three steps.
The first step is to restore the balance of power.
In World War II, there was a power vacuum in certain regions, and this vacuum must not be occupied by the Soviet Union. The United States must ensure that the Soviet Union does not influence the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan. How to do it? Make them prosperous. As long as they become prosperous, the Soviet Union will have no way to incite revolution.
The second step is to weaken the Soviet Union's influence in foreign affairs.
How to weaken it? He believed that direct confrontation with the Soviet Union should be avoided, especially not to directly attack areas where the Soviet Union has influence. Instead, their relationship with the Soviet Union should be undermined. He believed that the Soviet Union has always been self-serving towards its allies and has never had sincere allies. He said,
The leaders of the Kremlin are always so indifferent to others, so ruthless, and so arrogant and overbearing; the constraints on their followers are so cruel and severe. Hardly anyone can tolerate Moscow's authoritarianism for a long time. Once these communist leaders become the top figures of the country, a new and subtle force will come into play. Power, even if it is just a taste, will also corrode the communists. Especially when the personal interests or nationalism of these leaders continue to expand, differences and conflicts with the Soviet Union will be unavoidable.
In other words, the leaders of those Eastern European countries, although supported by the Soviet Union, will not want to be controlled by Stalin once they have tasted power.
And Kennan believed that there were three countries most likely to split from the Soviet Union: Yugoslavia (Tito), China, and Greece.
Tito and Stalin had long been at odds, and China, being vast, would never be content to be the Soviet Union's son.
The third step is to force the Soviet Union to accept negotiations to resolve issues.
To change the Soviet Union's style of behavior, "deterrence" and "inducement" must be implemented, which means using both the carrot and the stick.
Deterrence means clearly telling the Soviet Union that there are certain things it must not do, and if it does, there will be retaliation. Inducement means deliberately leaving a path for the Soviet Union to follow the path that the United States hopes for, forcing the Soviet Union to sit at the negotiating table.
Kennan's policy immediately became the topic of discussion in Washington and directly influenced the course of the Cold War.